UK private sector is shrinking as firms give ‘thumbs down’ to the budget
Newsflash: UK business output is contracting this month for the first time in over a year, as the tax increases announced in last month’s budget hit companies.
Data firm S&P Global says British firms are giving “a clear thumbs down” to the measures in Rachel Reeves’s first budget, such as the increase in employers’ national insurance contributions.
Its flash UK PMI Composite Output Index, which tracks activity across the UK economy, has dropped to a 13-month low of 49.9 this month, down from October’s 51.8.
That shows a marginal contraction (50 points = stagnation), but is at least better than in the eurozone (see earlier post).
UK companies reported that new order growth fell to its lowest for one year amid “widespread reports of fragile business confidence”.
UK retailers warned this week that the budget would drive up their costs, and lead them to cut staff – today’s PMI report has found that service providers “overwhelmingly” linked weaker optimism to forthcoming increases in payroll costs.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence says:
“The first survey on the health of the economy after the Budget makes for gloomy reading. Businesses have reported falling output for the first time in just over a year while employment has now been cut for two consecutive months.
Although only marginal, the downturns in output and hiring represent marked contrasts to the robust growth rates seen back in the summer and are accompanied by deepening concern about prospects for the year ahead.
Business optimism has slumped sharply since the General Election, dropping further in November to hit the lowest since late 2022. Companies are giving a clear ‘thumbs down’ to the policies announced in the Budget, especially the planned increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions.
Key events
Expectations for the US economy among Republican supporters have surged this month, while Democrats are much gloomier.
That’s according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, just released, which highlights the two groups’ incongruous views of how president-elect Trump’s policies will influence the economy.
Overall, the consumer sentiment index rose by 1.3 points this month, up to 71.8 points from October’s 70.5. However, that’s also 1.3 points lower than the preliminary estimate earlier this month, of 73.
Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu says:
Current conditions saw insignificant changes this month across the political spectrum, consistent with the fact that the resolution of the election exerted little immediate impact on the current state of the economy.
Ultimately, substantial uncertainty remains over the future implementation of Trump’s economic agenda, and consumers will continue to re-calibrate their views in the months ahead.
US company growth hits 31-month high
Boom! Growth in the US economy has hit its highest level in two and a half years this month, following this month’s election.
There was a “marked upturn in growth of business activity in November”, according to the latest poll of purchasing managers at American companies.
It shows that growth this month was a 31-month high, with output buoyed by the sharpest rise in demand for two-and-a half years.
That’s a much brighter picture than we’ve seen in the US or the eurozone this morning.
US factories are stepping up their purchases of imported inputs as they seek to front-run tariffs, the survey shows, which is putting pressure on supply chains.
Business confidence also picked up, with firms’ expectations of output in the coming year rose to the highest since May 2022.
S&P Global, which compiles the survey, attributes this optimism to the prospect of lower interest rates, improved economic growth, and more supportive business policies from the new administration in 2025.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says:
“The business mood has brightened in November, with confidence about the year ahead hitting a two-and-a-half year high. The prospect of lower interest rates and a more probusiness approach from the incoming administration has fueled greater optimism, in turn helping drive output and order book inflows higher in November.
“The rise in the headline flash PMI indicates that economic growth is accelerating in the fourth quarter, while at the same time inflationary pressures are cooling. The survey’s price gauge covering goods and services signalled only a marginal increase in prices in November, pointing to consumer inflation running well below the Fed’s 2% target.
Stocks have opened higher on Wall Street, on the final trading day of the week.
The Dow Jones industrial average has gained nearly 0.5%, or 197 points, to 44,068 at the open. Almost every one of the 30 companies on the index is up, led by Nike (+2.1%) and IBM (+1.5%). Chipmaker Nvidia is the only laggard, down 1.3%.
The broader S&P 500 index is up 0.2%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq is flat.
Jasper Jolly
The chief executive of Northvolt has resigned, after the Swedish battery startup filed for bankruptcy protection in the US.
Peter Carlsson, who has led Northvolt since 2016, will step aside with immediate effect, the company said on Friday. Carlsson said Northvolt, which is widely seen as a leading player in European efforts to build an electric vehicle battery industry, needs to raise between $1bn (£800m) and $1.2bn in order to restore the business.
Northvolt has built a factory in northern Sweden where it hopes to use green energy to produce hundreds of thousands of EV batteries each year. It was the most prominent of a host of European startups hoping to challenge the dominant Asian battery industry.
However, the company has tipped into crisis in recent months as cash ran dry and it experienced problems getting its first factory up and running properly.
More here…
Thales denies allegations over bribery and corruption probe
Defence firm Thales has just told the Paris stock market that it denies allegations of misconduct, following a joint UK-French investigation.
News broke last night that Thales, the multinational aerospace and defence electronics contractor, was being investigated by the UK’s Serious Fraud Office and its French equivalent, Parquet National Financier (PNF), over suspected bribery and corruption.
In a statement to the stock market, Thales says:
Thales confirms that the Parquet National Financier (PNF) in France and the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) in the United Kingdom have initiated an investigation in relation to four Thales entities located in France and the UK, regarding the performance of a contract in Asia.
Thales denies the allegations brought to its knowledge.
The Group is fully cooperating with the PNF in France and the SFO in the UK.
Thales complies with all national and international regulations.
Shares in Thales have fallen 6% so far today.
While the pound is sliding, shares on the London stock market are rising.
Hopes of faster cuts to UK interest rates have helped push up the share prices of construction firms such as Barratt Redrow (+3.5%) and Vistry (+3.6%).
Shares in retailers are also higher, with B&M up 4.1% and Sainsbury’s 3.4% higher, despite this morning’s drop in UK retail sales.
They may be benefitting from a pick-up in UK consumer confidence this month, according to the latest poll from GfK, which found that consumers have turned less pessimistic following the government’s first budget and the U.S. presidential election and they are showing more appetite for spending in the run-up to Christmas.
UK competition regulator could launch new probe into Apple and Google
The UK’s competition regulator is gearing up to launch a new probe into Apple and Google.
The Competition and Markets Authority’s (CMA) independent inquiry group has carried out an in-depth assessment of the mobile browser markets and has provisionally concluded that they are not working well for UK businesses and millions of phone users.
The group is recommending that the CMA board consider investigating Apple and Google’s mobile ecosystem activities using new digital markets powers.
The group has provisionally found that Apple’s rules restrict other competitors from being able to deliver new, innovative features that could benefit consumers. Other browser providers have highlighted concerns that they have been unable to offer a full range of browser features, such as faster webpage loading on iPhone.
Apple, though, denies it is holding back innovation in smartphone browsers.
It says:
“We disagree with the findings in the report regarding Safari, WebKit, and in-app browsing on iOS.
“We are concerned that the interventions discussed in the report for future consideration under the Digital Markets, Competition, and Consumers Act would undermine user privacy and security and hinder our ability to make the kind of technology that sets Apple apart.”
The euro could have further to fall once the financial markets fully price in Donald Trump’s upcoming second presidential term, argues George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank.
He told clients last night that “Trump is only 30% priced”, and that the euro could fall to parity against the US dollar – from $1.04 today – or lower, once the markets adjust further to the likely net fiscal spending, tariffs and immigration clampdowm.
Saravelos says:
The bottom line is the market is still not pricing a lot of Trump.
We remain bullish on the dollar and would view EUR/USD levels of 1.00 as pricing the intensity of the Trump policy mix at closer to 50%, with potential for even greater downside depending on what happens next year.
The euro is seemingly in free fall. Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos this morning after surprisingly weak PMIs: “We remain very bearish on EUR/USD. Trump is only 30% priced…Germany at risk of secular stagnation.” pic.twitter.com/R98aLwOPCY
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) November 22, 2024
Here’s a chart showing the details of today’s UK PMI report:
Mark Sweney
National World, the owner of the Scotsman and Yorkshire Post and underbidder in the auction for the Telegraph titles, has received a buyout proposal from its largest shareholder.
Media Concierge, the biggest player in the Irish newspaper market with 22 local titles including the Derry News, Limerick Leader and Kilkenny People, has submitted a non-binding proposal valuing one of the UK’s biggest regional and local newspaper groups at £56.2m.
The cash offer by Media Concierge, which is controlled by the media tycoon and racehorse owner Malcom Denmark and owns a UK direct marketing business, represents a 40% premium to National World’s closing share price on Thursday.
The proposal to take the business private fuels doubt about whether National World will be able to compete for the Telegraph should the preferred bidder, the New York Sun owner Dovid Efune, fails to secure financing before exclusivity expires at the end of the month.
More here:
FCA calls on life insurers to improve bereavement handling times
Kalyeena Makortoff
The Financial Conduct Authority has hit out at life insurers over “unnecessary delays” in settling claims for bereaved customers, and threatened to take action if the industry fails to improve.
The regulator said that while there was evidence that some insurers provide good service to bereaved customers, they need to settle claims quicker and improve how they measure customer experience.
It found that on average, firms took between 53 and 122 days to process a claim, from start to finish, for a term insurance policy, within 36 days for group life cover, 20 days for over 50 plans, and 53 days for whole of life.
The FCA said it will now be “engaging with industry to collectively improve customer outcomes” and address its findings. It will then do further work to understand what kind of changes have been made, and warned it “will take action if it doesn’t see improvements.”
Matt Brewis, director of insurance at the FCA, said:
The loss of a loved one can be intensely stressful and we expect firms to offer the right support to help their customers during this difficult time.
We expect all life insurers to act on our findings and avoid unnecessary delays with claims.
Investors have hiked their bets on another cut to eurozone interest rates before the end of 2024, following the slump in activity at European companies highlighted in today’s PMI report.
Money market pricing suggested that investors now price a 50% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut (ie, half a percentage point) at the ECB’s December meeting, up from 20% before the data, according to Reuters.
A 25 bps cut (a quarter of one percentage point) is fully discounted.
Bank stocks have been hit by the weak PMI data from the UK and the eurozone today.
Financial companies are leading the fallers on the FTSE 100 share index in London, with Barclays down 3.1%, Standard Chartered off 2.7% and NatWest losing 2.2%.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 Banks Index is down 2%, and hit the lowest since 9 October.
