In 2020, in response to the global climate emergency, the Scottish Government made a commitment to reduce car kilometres travelled by 20% by 2030 while increasing train travel for passengers and freight and pledged a significant programme of rail electrification.
Its transport plan, as outlined in 2023 guidance, took the view that reducing the dominance of private cars “can bring a number of wider benefits, improving our public places, and making Scotland a more attractive, safer and healthier place to live, work or visit”.
But The Herald can reveal that car traffic has actually risen over the last recorded decade between 2012/13 and 2022/23 by nearly 2%.
Total car traffic stood at 33,777 million vehicle kilometres in 2012/13 according to official records but rose to 34,375 traffic in 2022/23 In the past year it has risen by 11%.
(Image: BEAR Scotland)
Meanwhile the number of ScotRail train passengers over the same period has dropped by nearly 24% from 83.3m to 63.7m.
The Scottish Government has admitted that its target to decarbonise all passenger trains by transitioning from diesel to electric by 2035 will be missed and set a new date of 2045.
The Herald can reveal that only just a third (33%) of the ScotRail railway network is currently capable of even running electric trains.
According to an analysis by the transport regulator, the Office of Rail and Road, as of March, 2024, 896km of 2695km in Scotland is electrified. There has been little change since 2020 when ScotRail was operated by the state-owned transport company Abellio when the network had 885km of electrification.
The Scottish Government says it will demonstrate a “staged approach” to creating a decarbonised rail system by 2045.
According to the EU, as of 2022, some 57% (115,000km) of the entire member nation network was electrified. It sees it as a “key element of the modernisation of railway networks, lowering the negative environmental impact of railway transport and making it a favourable mode compared with road and other transport modes heavily dependent on fossil fuels”.
There was an exceptionally high share in Luxembourg, where nearly all of the railway lines were electrified (97%), while in Belgium it was 88%. Bulgaria and Sweden both registered 75% electrification and in the Netherlands it is at 74%.
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Electric trains are considered zero emission at the point of use, but they can still produce emissions indirectly.
Colin Howden, director of sustainable transport alliance Transform Scotland said: “Fewer cars on our roads benefits everyone – less traffic means cleaner air, reduced congestion, and safer streets. So it’s deeply disappointing to see traffic levels continue to rise. Given transport’s share of emissions, Scotland’s much-trumpeted climate targets will not be met without the government delivering on its promise to cut traffic levels by 20% by 2030.
(Image: Damian Shields)“But there’s no chance of progress when public transport often costs more than taking the car. As fares continue to rise above inflation, decisions such as the reintroduction of peak-hour fares on ScotRail are emblematic of the government’s disjointed approach to transport – expecting people to choose the healthier, greener option whilst hiking up prices.”
The Herald previously revealed that despite the introduction across major Scottish cities of low-emission zones (LEZ) to cut pollution and help meet greenhouse gas targets by discouraging use of cars in favour of public transport and green travel such as cycling and walking, ScotRail passenger numbers remain 16% lower than in pre-pandemic 2019/20, when services were being run by Abellio.
The public spending watchdog Audit Scotland has blamed a “lack of leadership” over what it called “minimal progress” towards its challenging climate change goal of reducing car use.
It said that while the Scottish Government in 2020 sought to cut car kilometres driven by 20% by 2030 as part of its efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions it had yet to produce a delivery plan for achieving the target, which it is “unlikely to meet”. Jane Ann Liston, secretary of Railfuture Scotland, the organisation campaigning for a bigger better railway, said she was “not surprised” that the bid target to remove diesel trains had slipped, saying more money needed to be spent on railways, while believing there was still a car-centric attitude amongst policymakers.
“A lot of continental countries have not had the anti-rail sentiment as there is over here,” she said. “I do wonder if one of the problems is that there was a feeling that there was no point in electrifying because certain lines might be closed.”
“If I recall correctly, the likes of Edinburgh-Dundee was supposed to be electrified at much the same time as EGIP (Edinburgh-Glasgow Improvement Plan/Programme) [which was officially completed on October 4, 2021, but it is yet another project which has fallen further and further behind.”
According to a message from transport secretary Fiona Hyslop the physical delivery of electrification works “needs to be staged to reduce the impact on passengers as much as is practicable.”
She said: “Undertaking too much disruptive engineering work across the network at the same time would have significant farebox revenue impacts and would significantly diminish the attractiveness of rail travel for the public.
“Delivering electrification over a longer period of time reduces passenger disruption from engineering works. It also allows for other associated works, such as bridge replacements, to be undertaken in a more phased manner, reducing road traffic impacts.”
Transport Secretary Fiona Hyslop (Image: Holyrood TV)
Transport Scotland’s 2023 guidance related to its future strategy emphasised the need to cut use of cars.
It said: “Reducing car use in Scotland will make it possible to reprioritise space and investment in accessible streets and public spaces to ensure inclusive and affordable access by walking, wheeling, cycling or public transport for those who do not have access to cars.
“The Scottish Government is committed to finding ways to make sustainable travel modes more attractive and supporting people to take fewer journeys by car, wherever they live. Yet the solutions need to be driven by local requirements and opportunities. In order to transform our places and transport system, we need bold strategies and transformative change at the local level.”
Separate guidance added: “By rethinking how we use our cars and reducing the number of daily journeys we take, we can help make Scotland a healthier, fairer, greener place to live and significantly contribute towards Scotland reaching net zero.”
Meanwhile the Scottish Government’s green plan to increase the amount of freight by rail by last year which cost the taxpayer millions has ‘failed’ to deliver the goods with levels actually dropping by nearly 20%.
The plan outlined in 2019, was seen as another way to cut carbon emissions by taking lorries off Scotland’s roads had a target of increasing the amount of freight by rail by 7.5% by the end of March, as part of a bid to help make a target to reach net zero by 2045.
It was backed by a ringfenced £25m rail freight fund to support its development.
This was on top of multi-million pound freight grant schemes aimed at transferring goods to sustainable modes of transport.
The Scottish Government’s rail freight strategy saw the drive to trains as a way of keeping consumer prices lower and improve safety and reduce congestion.
Scotland’s trains: Are we on the right track? (Image: NQ)
The industry in Scotland carries goods estimated to be worth more than £30 billion per annum, ranging from high-end whisky to produce for supermarket shelves.
But according to data circulated by the ORR, the amount of freight moved by train measured in net tonne kilometres has dropped from 220 million in the four months to March 31, 2020 to 178 million in the period this year.
A Scottish Government source said that the pace of progress of rail electrification “must match available funding” and had to be staged to reduce the impact on passengers as much as is practicable.
The source said that undertaking too much disruptive engineering work across the network at the same time would have “significant farebox revenue impacts” and would “significantly diminish the attractiveness of rail travel for the public”.
A spokesman said: “We will publish a refreshed Rail Decarbonisation Plan this spring. It will demonstrate a staged approach to creating a decarbonised rail system by 2045 and increasing from the current 75% of rail journeys which are already decarbonised.
“We remain firmly committed to progress on reducing car use by 20% by 2030 by helping to make sustainable travel a more attractive option. “The 2025-26 Budget sets out our sustained investment across the transport portfolio with proposed increases to low carbon and climate positive investment enabling us to go further, faster – and help improve the affordability, availability and accessibility of public transport.
“But we can only make these investments if Parliament works together to pass the 2025-26 Budget, a Budget for hope and recovery which enables us to get on with delivering on the priorities of the people of Scotland.”
