German election live: Conservatives projected to win and far-right AfD in second

What do we know at 10pm German time

Latest exit poll update

The conservative CDU/CSU is on course to win the German federal election and form a new government, with its leader Friedrich Merz expected to lead it in a coalition arrangement that would most likely involve the SPD and potentially the Greens as the third party, if needed.

Speaking as the presumed next chancellor, Merz stressed Europe’s need to be more self-reliant on defence faced with the US under Trump, as he warned the new US administration made it “clear that this government is fairly indifferent to Europe’s fate”. He also repeated his criticism of Elon Musk for his involvement in German politics and support of the far-right AfD. His comments came shortly after congratulations from Trump.

The leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz (right) and State Premier of Bavaria and leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), chair Markus Söder (left), celebrate during the CDU election event in Berlin. Photograph: Hannibal Hanschke/EPA

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party celebrated its highest-ever result in a federal poll, with its co-leader Alice Weidel criticising the CDU/CSU for refusing to work with her party. She predicted an “unstable government which will not last the next four years”, saying the AfD would be waiting in the wings to take over the helm.

Alice Weidel, co-leader and chancellor candidate of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), and AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla stand on stage with flowers at AfD headquarters after the announcement of initial results in the snap federal parliamentary elections. Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

The Social Democratic party has been left reeling on the back of a historically low vote share, with outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, admitting it was a “bitter result”.He said he would not be involved in any coalition talks with the CDU/CSU, with other SPD leaders expected to lead.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD Party leaves the TV studio after an election night TV talk show at the capital city studio of the TV channel ARD — German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD party leaves the TV studio after an election night TV talkshow at the capital city studio of the TV channel ARD. Photograph: Filip Singer/EPA

With the liberal FDP more likely than not to miss out on seats in the next Bundestag, the focus is now on the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance which is on 4.9% and 5% in exit polls. Crossing the 5% threshold would get in seats in the new parliament, and effectively force the CDU/CSU into a three-way coalition with the SPD and the Greens.

BSW party chair and top candidate Sahra Wagenknecht speaks during the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) election event in Berlin. Photograph: Martin Divíšek/EPA

Latest German opinion polls

14-day rolling average %

CDU/CSU
SPD
Grüne
FDP
AfD
Linke

Source: Guardian moving average of recent poll data from\n wahlrecht.de,\n last updated

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Earlier this weekend, I also spoke with Dr Raphael Bossong of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for this blog to get his take on the election and ask him to guide us through the vote.

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You will hear from him more throughout the day, but I started by asking him why Europe should take note of the vote.

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Well, it’s a decisive election. I mean, they always say that, but definitely this one is really important for Germany and for Europe at the same time.

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The tasks for the next government are bigger than ever.

\n

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Watch what he had to say:

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vote casts her vote at a polling station in Berlin.”,”caption”:”A vote casts her vote at a polling station in Berlin.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Philipp-Moritz Jenne/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Voter turnout at the ballot box by 2pm was at 52%, up from 36.5% at the same time in 2021 (+15.5pp, but take note that the 2021 election took place during the Covid-19 pandemic, so some voters opted for postal vote instead), German federal electoral authorities have just confirmed.

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Looking at the state-by-state breakdown from earlier in the day, reported by Welt, it seems like there was a particularly high turnout in the state of Thuringia (44.5% at midday, up from 24.6% in 2021), which is an AfD stronghold and where the far-right party won the state elections in September last year.

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Berlin also reported a higher turnout at noon with 33%, up from 25.4% in 2021.

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Opinion is divided as Germany faces what some describe as the “most important election in their lifetime”. The country is expected to shift to the right as Friedrich Merz is in pole position to become Germany’s next chancellor, while far-right party AfD could become the second most powerful party.

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So earlier today I asked voters at a polling station in central Berlin what they expected from the election and what they wanted the next chancellor to focus on.

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Europe correspondent

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Latest German opinion polls

14-day rolling average %

CDU/CSU
SPD
Grüne
FDP
AfD
Linke

Source: Guardian moving average of recent poll data from\n wahlrecht.de,\n last updated

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There seems little doubt that, barring any major surprises, the conservative Merz will be Germany’s next chancellor. The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have been consistently and comfortably ahead in the polls on about 30%, with the Alternative für Deutschland second on 20-21%.

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There is no apparent route to power for the far-right AfD since all other parties have ruled out working with a party they consider undemocratic.

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According to the Guardian’s poll tracker, the SPD are third on about 15% and the Greens fourth on 13%. The leftwing Die Linke are predicted to clear the 5% hurdle and expected to secure around 7-8% but it looks far from certain that the “conservative-left” Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) or liberal FDP will do the same.

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Depending on whether that trio (plus the local associations of Free Voters (FW), who could do well in Bavaria) score 5% or more, or qualify via the three-seat exception, the next assembly could have four parties or eight, the most in modern history.

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That makes the distribution of seats in the new parliament very hard to predict. However, most analysts see the most likely outcome being a CDU-led coalition government including either Scholz’s Social Democrats or the Greens, or maybe both.

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Europe correspondent

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The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CDU/CSU) frontrunners, led by wealthy former asset manager Friedrich Merz, are proposing to cut taxes, tighten welfare eligibility, slash immigration, process asylum claims abroad, and boost aid to Ukraine.

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The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has endorsed the concept of “re-migration”, threatening the mass deportation of migrants. It also pledges a return to the deutschmark, military conscription, and sweeping education reforms.

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Scholz’s Social Democratic party (SPD) aims to support low-income families by cutting VAT on food and tax for low earners and raising the minimum wage. It also aims to curb immigration and proposes a €100bn infrastructure investment fund, but is more cautious on Ukraine. Scholz has refused to send long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv, defending the decision as a “prudent” anti-escalation measure.

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The Greens have announced plans for a “billionaire tax” to help poorer households through the green transition. They are also in favour of increasing the minimum wage and are pushing for incentives to speed up the switch to renewable energy.

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posters, showing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, and CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz, stand on a meadow in Nieder-Erlenbach near Frankfurt.”,”caption”:”Election posters, showing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, and CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz, stand on a meadow in Nieder-Erlenbach near Frankfurt.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Michael Probst/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”12.39 CET”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740314884000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”13.48 CET”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740314884000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”13.48 CET”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”13.48″,”title”:”Who are the key players and what have they promised?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2016/09/22/Jon-Henley.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=49db88bf6fc8b042c62d52be8afd87ae”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Jon_Henley,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cf23d4c141249ac9dd9f5c331c359f12″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Feb 2025 01.52 CET”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 12.39 CET”},{“id”:”67babb568f08089227381baf”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Europe correspondent

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The three-way “traffic-light” coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens ruling Germany since 2021 collapsed in November under the weight of its own ideological contradictions and the country’s economic and security challenges.

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The outgoing Social Democrat chancellor, Olaf Scholz, fired his liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner, over a bitter months-long budget dispute, then called a confidence vote in parliament deliberately in order to lose it – which he duly did.

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Whoever becomes chancellor will have to tackle an economy beset by high energy and labour costs, stifling bureaucracy, crumbling infrastructure and an economy that has shrunk for two consecutive years for the first time in decades.

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The slowdown with trade partner China has dealt a blow to German exports, a traditional strength, while the key car industry has been slow to develop attractive electric vehicles (EVs) and now faces the threat of US tariffs under Donald Trump.

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Optimists say the vote could give Germany a vital shot at investment, modernisation and renewal. Pessimists say the problems are so structural and expectations so high that the middle-of-the-road coalition that will probably emerge is doomed to disappoint.

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chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election.”,”caption”:”German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Carsten Koall/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”12.39 CET”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740312506000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”13.08 CET”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740312506000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”13.08 CET”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”13.08″,”title”:”Why does the German election matter?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2016/09/22/Jon-Henley.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=49db88bf6fc8b042c62d52be8afd87ae”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Jon_Henley,_L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cf23d4c141249ac9dd9f5c331c359f12″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 24 Feb 2025 01.52 CET”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 12.39 CET”},{“id”:”67bab6bf8f086d399220521d”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Guten Tag, and good day from Berlin.

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Sixty million Germans choose their next government today, which will lead Europe’s largest economy through what will most likely be the most tumultuous era in decades.

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Voters have to choose who will be given the task of steering Germany through an existential security crisis in Europe with Ukraine and Russia, while at the same time facing unprecedented structural challenges to the country’s economic model amid a worsening geopolitical outlook abroad, most obviously characterised by a crumbling transatlantic alliance with the new US administration of Donald Trump.

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man makes soap bubbles in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.”,”caption”:”A man makes soap bubbles in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Michael Probst/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The conservative opposition chief Friedrich Merz is widely expected to score a win and get the job. But other than that, there are more questions than answers. Who will he govern with? How many parties will get into the Bundestag? Will the far-right once again see record rises in their support, and if so, what will this mean for German politics?

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The polling stations have been open since 8am local time (7am GMT) and will close at 6pm local time (5pm GMT) when we should get an exit poll and a first indication of what awaits Germany next.

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We will bring you all the key updates throughout the day, helping you to understand the context of the vote, summarising the main themes of the campaign, and bringing first-hand reports from on the ground in Berlin.

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Key events

Final results

The results are in, confirming the CDU/CSU on 28.5%, the AfD in second place on 20.8% – its best result ever – the SPD slumping by 10 percentage points to 16.4% and the Greens to 11.6%.

The Left has surged to 8.8% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance has just snuck in with exactly 5%.

FDP leader Christian Lindner resigns

As the vote-count nears completion, Christian Lindner, the leader of the liberal FDP, has resigned after it became clear his party would fail to reach the 5% threshold.

In a post on X, he said would retire from active politics:

The parliamentary elections brought defeat for the FDP but hopefully a new start for Germany. That’s what I fought for. Now I’m retiring from active politics. I have only one feeling: gratitude for almost 25 intense, challenging years full of productive work and debate.

Lindner, 46, served as finance minister in Olaf Scholz’s unwieldy three-way coalition government but was often at odds with the Social Democrat chancellor.

Matters came to a head in November when Scholz fired him after a bitter falling out over government spending, paving the way for the collapse of the coalition and early elections.

What the papers say

The German papers are giving their verdicts on the day’s events. Bild, the country’s largest circulation newspaper, declared “Merz does it!” in its headline, adding among other things “SPD so bad as never before!”, “AfD almost doubled”, “The Greens cry, the Left celebrates”.

Photograph: Bild

The Süddeutsche Zeitung has used a quote from the victorious Friedrich Merz as its headline: “The world out there isn’t waiting for us” and reports that the chancellor-in-waiting wants to form a coalition by Easter.

Photograph: suddeutsche-zeitung

The Handelsblatt splashes on “Election winner Merz”, adding “The Union (CDU/CSU) wins the elections. The AfD achieves a record result. The SPD loses drastically – and the FDP fails to pass the 5% hurdle.”

Photograph: Handelsblatt

One of the key things on Friedrich’s Merz’s plate will be dealing with Donald Trump and the effect his administration will have on Nato and the war in Ukraine in particular.

“I never thought I would need to say something like this on television,” Merz said on a post-election panel of party leaders. “But after Donald Trump’s statements last week, it’s clear: this American government doesn’t care for Europe.”

Merz also criticised what he called “interference” from Elon Musk, who has promoted the AfD, “drastic and shameful – similar to what we’ve heard from Moscow in the past”.

And he said that Germany would have to wait to see “whether we will still be able to speak about Nato in its current form” when the alliance meets for its next summit in June.

He added that he had not given up hope that Ukraine would be included in any negotiations with Russia on its future, perhaps with the “intervention of the US Congress” on Kyiv’s behalf against any attempt at exclusion by Trump.

“We need to see whether we don’t need to become more quickly independent in Europe in terms of our defence capabilities,” he added.

On Friday, Merz told public broadcaster ZDF that Germany would need to come to terms with the possibility that Trump might not stick with Nato’s mutual-defence pledge unrestrictedly.

He said this meant that Berlin might need to become less reliant on the US with regard to their nuclear umbrella and advocated talks with Europe’s nuclear powers France and Britain about an expansion of their nuclear protection.

Merz, a transatlanticist, has been more hawkish against Russia than the acting Chancellor Olaf Scholz, suggesting medium-range Taurus missiles might be sent to Kyiv under his reign, something Scholz has strictly rejected.

The Greens’ candidate for chancellor, vice chancellor Robert Habeck, has said that Merz would do well to moderate his tone after a hard-fought campaign. Merz has repeatedly criticised Habeck as a “failed” economy minister and said he will break up Habeck’s joint portfolio of economy and climate action in his cabinet.

“We have seen the centre is weakened overall, and everyone should look at themselves and ask whether they didn’t contribute to that,” said Habeck. “Now he [Merz] must see that he acts like a chancellor.”

While the Greens coalition partner, the SPD, has lost heavily in these elections (down about 10 percentage points) and the FDP looks set to disappear from parliament, the Greens have lost only about 3 percentage points.

In its latest projection the broadcaster ZDF has put the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) on 5% – just enough to get it into parliament.

That will in turn affect how many seats other parties get and whether Friedrich Merz will have to turn to a third party – realistically the Greens, with whom the CDU and CSU disagree on many subjects – in order to form a coalition.

The liberal FDP, which brought down Olaf Scholz’s coalition last year, is on 4.4% according to ZDF, not enough to get into parliament.

Sahra Wagenknecht (R) of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance. Photograph: Ronny Hartmann/AFP/Getty Images

Ashifa Kassam

For more than 150 years, the symbolism of the Siegessäule, or Victory Column, in Berlin’s Tiergarten, has shifted alongside German identity: from emblem of the empire to strategic relocation by the Nazis and, finally, its adoption as an icon of Berlin’s legendary love parade.

On Sunday, as throngs of people gathered in its shadow, the golden statue bore witness to yet another shift – an election that had yielded an emboldened far right in a result that was unprecedented in Germany’s postwar history.

“I’m devastated,” said David, 32. “And I’m scared and sad.”

Preliminary results suggested that although the conservative CDU/CSU bloc had won the largest share of the vote (29%), likely to be the second force in the parliament was the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which garnered about 20% of the vote.

Polls had long predicted this result, said David, who declined to give his surname. But now the question was what exactly it meant for the millions of Germans who were either racialised, like him, or who are migrants.

Read on below:

The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, has also congratulated Friedrich Merz and the CDU/CSU on their victory. In a post on X he wrote:

I look forward to working with the new government to deepen our already strong relationship, enhance our joint security and deliver growth for both our countries.

Emmanuel Macron has offered his congratulations to Friedrich Merz and his “friendship” to Olaf Scholz, with whom he has had an at times fraught relationship. In a post on X, the French president said:

I just spoke with Friedrich Merz to congratulate him on his victory in the German elections.

I also had an exchange with Olaf Scholz to express my friendship on this evening.

We are more determined than ever to achieve great things together for France and Germany and work towards a strong and sovereign Europe. In this time of uncertainty, we are united to face the major challenges of the world and our continent.

This is Helen Livingstone taking over the blog from my colleague Maya Yang.

Kate Connolly

According to the latest update in the German election results, the conservative CDU/CSU alliance, the winner of the night, might be in need not just of the left-wing Social Democrats (SPD) to form a government, but also the Greens, if the far-left BSW grouping ends up entering parliament by getting more than the 5% minimum required.

There are some arithmetical acrobatics going on here which are quite complicated to understand, but the reason is due to the fact that the pro-business FDP (whose decision not to continue in the three-way coalition government of Olaf Scholz prompted early elections in the first place) looks highly unlikely to get into parliament. Latest poll results show the FDP to have secured just 4.4% of the vote. The BSW of Sahra Wagenknecht, a breakaway group from the far-left Die Linke, will leave pollsters in a state of tension until the last of the votes has been counted. In the last poll it was standing at 4.9%. That is just below the amount needed to enter the Bundestag. The nail biting in Berlin continues.

Die Linke, celebrating the most surprising result of the night, by the way, having secured 8.5%, were continuing to party late on Sunday evening, even as supporters of parties such as the FDP and SPD – which received its historically worst result ever) had long since packed up and gone home. Die Linke has not yet used the word schadenfreude (malicious glee) to describe how it feels towards the BSW which almost drove it into non-existence, but it’s not hard to imagine that the word has passed the lips of at least some of the party faithful this evening.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has congratulated the CDU/CSU, writing on X:

“I congratulate the CDU/CSU and @_FriedrichMerz on their victory in the Bundestag elections. A clear voice from the voters, and we see how important this is for Europe.

“We look forward to continuing our joint work with Germany to protect lives, bring real peace closer to Ukraine, and strengthen Europe.

“Europe must be able to defend itself, develop its industries, and achieve the necessary results. Europe needs shared successes, and those success will bring even greater unity to Europe.”

Although Donald Trump was quick to hail the success of conservatives in the German elections as a sort of personal triumph, Friedrich Merz, who leads the conservative CDU/CSU, told the state broadcaster that his top priority as the likely next chancellor would be to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can be independent of the United States of America”.

“I would’ve never thought I would need to say something like this on television,” Merz said on a post-election panel of party leaders. “But after Donald Trump’s statements last week, it’s clear: this American government doesn’t care for Europe.”

Merz also criticized what he called “interference” from Elon Musk, who had promoted the AfD, “drastic and shameful – similar to what we’ve heard from Moscow in the past”.

In a statement to the Guardian, Nicolai Von Ondarza, associate fellow, Europe Programme at Chatham House, said that the German elections had seen very high turnout by international standards at 83-84% – and the highest since reunification.

“The age distribution is interesting with far more older people voting in Germany … The AfD gained in the youth vote, but the big winner there was Die Linke.

“AfD gained the most from mobilising non-voters as well as the centre-right. At the end, the AfD losses to the also populist BSW were minimal. On the other side of the spectrum, Die Linke won more voters from the centre-left and non-voters than it lost to BSW.

“One of the results showing how unhappy Germans were with what was on offer – the most popular chancellor candidate remained, until the end – one who was not running, Boris Pistorius,” Ondarza said.

Jakub Krupa

And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa in Berlin, for now as I’m handing the blog over to Maya Yang to lead you through the late evening as we get more results and reactions to the German vote.

Stay with us for all the latest.

What do we know at 10pm German time

Latest exit poll update

The conservative CDU/CSU is on course to win the German federal election and form a new government, with its leader Friedrich Merz expected to lead it in a coalition arrangement that would most likely involve the SPD and potentially the Greens as the third party, if needed.

Speaking as the presumed next chancellor, Merz stressed Europe’s need to be more self-reliant on defence faced with the US under Trump, as he warned the new US administration made it “clear that this government is fairly indifferent to Europe’s fate”. He also repeated his criticism of Elon Musk for his involvement in German politics and support of the far-right AfD. His comments came shortly after congratulations from Trump.

The leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz (right) and State Premier of Bavaria and leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), chair Markus Söder (left), celebrate during the CDU election event in Berlin. Photograph: Hannibal Hanschke/EPA

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party celebrated its highest-ever result in a federal poll, with its co-leader Alice Weidel criticising the CDU/CSU for refusing to work with her party. She predicted an “unstable government which will not last the next four years”, saying the AfD would be waiting in the wings to take over the helm.

Alice Weidel, co-leader and chancellor candidate of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), and AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla stand on stage with flowers at AfD headquarters after the announcement of initial results in the snap federal parliamentary elections. Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

The Social Democratic party has been left reeling on the back of a historically low vote share, with outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, admitting it was a “bitter result”.He said he would not be involved in any coalition talks with the CDU/CSU, with other SPD leaders expected to lead.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD party leaves the TV studio after an election night TV talkshow at the capital city studio of the TV channel ARD. Photograph: Filip Singer/EPA

With the liberal FDP more likely than not to miss out on seats in the next Bundestag, the focus is now on the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance which is on 4.9% and 5% in exit polls. Crossing the 5% threshold would get in seats in the new parliament, and effectively force the CDU/CSU into a three-way coalition with the SPD and the Greens.

BSW party chair and top candidate Sahra Wagenknecht speaks during the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) election event in Berlin. Photograph: Martin Divíšek/EPA

Greens still could be kingmakers in next government – snap analysis

Ajit Niranjan

Environment correspondent

Top candidate for the German federal parliamentary elections of the Green Party (Die Gruenen), the minister for economy and climate, Robert Habeck (centre), reacts on stage alongside the foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock (left) and Greens co-chair Felix Banaszak (right) during an election event in Berlin. Photograph: Ronald Wittek/EPA

For an election in which climate breakdown has long since faded into the background, the Greens are glad to have lost fewer voters than their coalition partners.

Tonight’s polls suggest the young voters who helped it into power four years ago have turned away in large numbers – with the Left and AfD enjoying a surge in support among young people – but overall the Greens have suffered only a small drop in support that has brought them to 12%.

Still, the complex maths of the German electoral system means the Greens could still play a decisive role in forming the next government. Two small parties, the FDP and BSW, are hovering at or just below the 5% hurdle needed to enter parliament – and a likely “grand coalition” between the centre-left and centre-right would fall short of a majority if either of the small parties were to clear the bar.

That’s where the Greens could step in as kingmakers – if the conservatives are willing to work with them. Heavyweights of the CDU/CSU have stressed their reluctance to do so at several points tonight, though perhaps their biggest critic, CSU leader Markus Söder, declined to categorically rule out a partnership. “If it’s at all possible, we’ll stick to our position.”

Jakub Krupa

Worth noting the stark contrast there between Merz’s words about the US – he also pointedly criticised Elon Musk for interfering in the German election by actively supporting the AfD – and Trump’s statement earlier.

CDU/CSU’s Merz hints at Europe’s need to be more self-reliant on defence faced with US under Trump

Deborah Cole

Berlin correspondent

Supporters of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) follow an election night TV talkshow hosted by public broadcaster ARD following the general elections in Berlin, with party leader Friedrich Merz appearing on screen. Photograph: Ina Fassbender/AFP/Getty Images

Speaking on the same programme, Merz said Trump had made it “clear that this government is fairly indifferent to Europe’s fate” and that Germany would have to wait to see “whether we will still be able to speak about Nato in its current form” when the alliance meets for its next summit in June.

“We need to see whether we don’t need to become more quickly independent in Europe in terms of our defence capabilities,” he added.

Lindner says he will resign if FDP is out of parliament

Kate Connolly

Berlin correspondent

Germany’s liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP)’s top candidate, Christian Lindner, takes part in an election night TV talkshow hosted by public broadcaster ARD. Photograph: Stefanie Loos/AFP/Getty Images

Christian Lindner, head of the pro business FDP, which triggered the snap elections after meticulously planning the demise of the coalition, has just announced during the so-called elephant round of all the party leaders on television that if his party, as looks the case right now, fails to get over the 5% hurdle needed to get into parliament, he will resign.

Lindner, 46, who was finance minister in the fractious Scholz government, is the FDP’s longest-serving leader, having taken on the job in 2017. His wife is expecting their first child this spring.

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German election live: Conservatives projected to win and far-right AfD in second

Latest German opinion polls

Latest German opinion polls

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