How did it come to this?
The roots of the debacle lie in President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament in June and the resulting snap election, which returned a parliament divided into three roughly equal groups with no majority.
That meant Barnier’s minority centrist and centre-right government was, in effect, at the mercy of the left-leaning New Popular Front (NFP) alliance and the far right National Rally (RN), which together had enough MPs to unseat it.
On Monday, Barnier said he would ram the social security part of the budget through without a parliamentary vote – a procedure which gives opposition MPs the chance to challenge the government with no-confidence votes.
Both the left and the far right have pledged to do so this afternoon, after a debate due to begin at 4pm local time (3pm GMT). A vote on the motion thought most likely to pass – there are two – is expected at about 7pm.
No new elections can be held until June, and Macron – who is thought unlikely to resign himself, at least for the time being – will face the daunting task of appointing a new government with parliament more bitterly divided than ever.
There’s a more in-depth explainer on how the crisis came about, why it’s happening now, and Macron’s possible options here:
You can also read more about the crisis here and, in a standback, big-picture analysis, here.
Key events
Yaël Braun-Pivet, the speaker of the lower house, has declared the debate open. The first to address the assemblée nationale is Éric Coquerel, a senior MP from the radical left France Unbowed (LFI) party.
Coquerel says he is “honoured to defend” the no-confidence motion tabled by the left-leaning LFI alliance, adding that a majority of the French people support it. Barnier would be the first prime minister to be defeated by a no confidence vote since George Pompidou in 1962, he says.
Coquerel says that Barnier tried to seek compromise. “But you did it with the far right, the RN that you favour, in violation of the ‘republican front’” against the far right that was supported by a majority of voters in July’s elections, he says – a resounding “insult” to France’s electorate.
But Barnier is also a victme of “the real person responsible for this situation”, he says, namely President Macron: “Your failure was pre-announced, and it has been bitter. This motion of censure will remove you.”
Debate set to begin
The initial, unrelated motion (see 15.45GMT) has been voted. After a brief break, the debate on the two motions of no confidence submitted bt the left-elaning NFP alliance and the far right RN is about to start.
Assuming the government is felled, Barnier, who has been in the job for less than three months, would have to tender his resignation and that of his minority government to Emmanuel Macron. What happens next?
In terms of the 2025 budget, one option would be for Macron to give in to the budget demands of the RN and name a prime minister backed by the far right party. But that would imply abandoning efforts to cut France’s budget deficit.
More likely is that he asks Barnier to stay on in a caretaker capacity to handle day-to-day business, including proposing emergency legislation that would roll over spending limits and tax provisions from 2024.
That would avert a government shutdown, but the €60bn (£50bn) of savings through spending cuts and tax rises planned by the Barnier government – and welcomed by the EU and investors – would no longer happen.
A caretaker government could also invoke constitutional powers to pass the 2025 budget by executive order if MPs have not approved it by 20 December, but legal experts say this is uncertain territory and would be open to challenge.
Longer term, Macron has few options for a new prime minister and government. The loyalist defence minister, Sebastien Lecornu, and Macron’s centrist ally Francois Bayrou may be possible contenders.
On the left, Macron could possibly turn to the former Socialist premier and interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve, who was briefly a contender in September. But the risk remains that MPs will topple one pick after another.
During a session of parliamentary questions for ministers earlier this afternoon, the government spokesperson, Maud Bregeon, accused the opposition left-leaning NFP and far right RN of being “engineers of chaos”, BFM-TV reported.
In a few hours’ time, Bregeon said, “the struggles of the RN and the NFP will converge. Every MP will then make their choice in that knowledge, and will have to take responsibility before their voters for having been at the root of a longterm weakening of the country.”
President Emmanuel Macron, on his way back from a presidential visit to Saudi Arabia earlier on Wednesday and under pressure from both leftist and far-right MPs to step down, said talk of him potentially resigning was “make-believe politics”.
Macron told reporters that he was “here because I’ve been elected twice by the French people,” adding: “We must not scare people with such things. We have a strong economy.”
The leader of the mainstream centre-left Socialist party (PS), part of the leftist NFP alliance, told Le Monde that Macron needed to make his futire intentions clear if the Barnier government does indeed fall.
“Rather than dropping little remarks during a visit to Saudi Arabia, Macron now needs to speak to the French people,” he said. “How can he leave the French people in this uncertainty just before Christmas?”
A note on the mechanics of the afternoon and early evening: the parliamentary debate kicks off at 4pm local time (3pm GMT) with a discussion of an unrelated matter tabled by the radical left LFI.
That means the debate on the two no-confidence motions should in principle begin at about 4.45pm. The motions, one presented by the left-leaning NFP alliance and the other by the far right RN, will be debated together.
One speaker from each parliamentary group will address the motions, starting with MP Eric Coquerel for LFI. He will be followed by Marine Le Pen for the RN, then the Socialist party (PS), the centre-right Les Républicains, the Greens and the various centrist parties that make up Emanual Macron’s alliance.
Each speaker is strictly time-limited, so we can be fairly sure we will have about two-and-a-half or two-and-three-quarter hours of debate, with a vote then due at about 7.45pm local time. Voting should take about 45 minutes.
Deputies will vote first on the NFP’s no-confidence motion – the one most likely to pass. To succeed, the motion needs 288 votes – slightly less than the assembly’s 289-seat majority because three bye-elections are underway.
In principle, therefore, Michel Barnier and his government’s fate should be decided by about 8.30pm this evening.
How did it come to this?
The roots of the debacle lie in President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament in June and the resulting snap election, which returned a parliament divided into three roughly equal groups with no majority.
That meant Barnier’s minority centrist and centre-right government was, in effect, at the mercy of the left-leaning New Popular Front (NFP) alliance and the far right National Rally (RN), which together had enough MPs to unseat it.
On Monday, Barnier said he would ram the social security part of the budget through without a parliamentary vote – a procedure which gives opposition MPs the chance to challenge the government with no-confidence votes.
Both the left and the far right have pledged to do so this afternoon, after a debate due to begin at 4pm local time (3pm GMT). A vote on the motion thought most likely to pass – there are two – is expected at about 7pm.
No new elections can be held until June, and Macron – who is thought unlikely to resign himself, at least for the time being – will face the daunting task of appointing a new government with parliament more bitterly divided than ever.
There’s a more in-depth explainer on how the crisis came about, why it’s happening now, and Macron’s possible options here:
You can also read more about the crisis here and, in a standback, big-picture analysis, here.
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The political crisis looming in France since summer could take a dramatic new turn this afternoon, with the three-month old government of French prime minister Michel Barnier thought likely to be felled by a no-confidence motion.
If it succeeds, the vote – over the government’s proposed 2025 budget, which includes €60bn (£50bn) in tax hikes and spending cuts – would make Barnier’s fragile administration the first in France to be ousted in this way since 1962.
It would also become the shortest-lived government in the history of the Fifth Republic, which began in 1958, and plunge a core EU member state into even deeper crisis weeks before Donald Trump arrives in the White House.
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