European leaders have sought to project unity, calling on Donald Trump to maintain US support for Ukraine and avoid a damaging trade war when he returns to the White House for a second term likely to prove a major challenge for the continent.
Meeting in Budapest for two days of talks hosted by Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, a Trump supporter, the EU’s 27 heads of state and government were joined on Thursday by 20 other leaders from the wider European political community – including the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the UK’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy
On the agenda were support for Ukraine, migration, trade and economic security. An informal summit of EU leaders will focus on Friday on the bloc’s declining competitiveness, laid bare in a report by the former Italian leader Mario Draghi.
Trump’s victory brings unwanted further uncertainty to the continent at a time when it is already struggling to agree on common responses to its problems, including much-needed new funding tools for defence and economic innovation.
The return of the former president raises the prospect of a halt to US support for Ukraine, will fuel doubts over Washington’s future commitment to the Nato alliance, and could herald economically disastrous tariffs on European exports.
It is also likely to bolster Europe’s advancing far-right parties at a time when the bloc’s two biggest powers, Germany, whose coalition government collapsed on Wednesday, and France, are weakened by political crises at home.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said Europe must assert its independence from the United States and defend its interests over those of geopolitical rivals at a “decisive moment”, adding: “We must not forever delegate our security to America.”
Europe must seize control of its own history, Macron said. “Do we want to read the history written by others – the wars launched by Vladimir Putin, the US election, China’s technological or trade choices – or do we want to write our own?”
European Council president Charles Michel acknowledged “differences” but said Europe aimed to be a “respected partner” for the US, adding that Washington “knows it is in its interest to show firmness when we engage with authoritarian regimes”.
The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said the bloc must maintain unity. “We have shown Europe can take responsibility by standing together – we showed it during the pandemic and the energy crisis,” she said, adding that she was looking forward to working with Trump again “in a good manner … to strengthen the transatlantic bond”.
On Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, von der Leyen said: “It is in all our interests that the autocrats of this world get a very clear message that is not the right of might – that the rule of law is important.”
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told Thusrday’s meeting an approach of “peace through strength” was urgently needed, saying concessions to Moscow were unacceptable for Ukraine and would be suicidal for Europe.
Nato’s new secretary general, Mark Rutte, said he was aiming to work closely with Trump, noting that it was pressure during the former president’s first term that had pushed alliance members to boost defence spending.
Russia was “delivering the latest [weapons] technology into North Korea in return for North Korean help with the war against Ukraine”, a threat “not only to the European part of Nato, but also to the US”, he said, adding that he was looking forward to discussing with Trump “how we face these threats collectively”.
Others, though, were more circumspect. Trump was “known sometimes for a degree of unpredictability, a degree of volatility, so we need dialogue”, Luxembourg prime minister, Luc Frieden, said. “We will seek dialogue, but won’t give up our principles.”
Finland’s prime minister, Petteri Orpo, said he was alarmed at the prospect of a trade war: “It should not be allowed to happen,” he said. “Let’s now try to influence the US and Trump’s future policy so that he understands the risks involved.”
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Analysts have expressed significant doubts about the extent to which Europe’s often-divided leaders will be able to rise collectively to the challenge of an isolationist, “America first” presidency.
“Contrary to claims, Europe is not prepared for the economic impact of higher tariffs, the likely U-turn on Ukraine, and defence spending ultimatums – we expect the EU to divide on similar lines to the US itself,” Eurointelligence analysts said.
Some have suggested it could prove the “eletroshock” the EU needs. Sébastien Maillard, of the Jacques Delors Institute, said Europeans “really have a knife at their throat … The US election result forces the EU to open its eyes.” But perhaps, he added, “it’s in situations like these that things can actually happen”.
“There is some reason to believe that a Trump 2.0 presidency – a situation many EU capitals will perceive as existential to their and the EU’s interests – could galvanize EU politics to action,” said Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia group.
“But should Trump’s attack on the EU become existential, fragmentation is one possible result that could easily spread.”
Trump’s victory comes as the EU’s traditonal power tandem, France and Germany, are both severely weakened. Moreover, Europe’s far-right parties, led by Orbàn, are likley to be further emboldened by Trump’s victory, with Orbán already finding backing from Slovakia’s populist prime minister, Robert Fico, on calls for a swift end to the war in Ukraine.
Macron is hobbled after losing snap elections in July, while Germany might be in political limbo until fresh elections in March after the collapse of chancellor Olaf Scholz three-party coalition. Germany might be in political limbo until fresh elections in March.
“Without those two, the rest will find it extremely difficult to really advance on anything,” said Guntram Wolff, of the Bruegel thinktank, adding that he did not think Europe was “really prepared for this”.
