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Mass layoffs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration could come with potentially devastating impacts to U.S. forecasting abilities, including data and modeling that’s used for life-saving communications during severe weather events.
On Monday, reports citing former agency officials said the White House was preparing to cancel leases for key forecasting offices, including the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction and a radar development lab in Oklahoma. The center provides seasonal outlooks and forecasting, producing information for the National Weather Service, the U.S. Navy, the Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration, according to The Verge. Its Environmental Modeling Center ensures that accurate weather data is used in the models that run day-to-day forecasting, Axios noted.
A request for confirmation and comment from the White House, NOAA, and the National Weather Service was not immediately returned.
Meteorologists and climate scientists say the center’s loss — which comes as Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency take a slash-and-burn approach to the federal government — would be major.
“I don’t really know how to shout this from the rooftops any louder: If this actually happens, it would spell the end of U.S. numerical weather prediction — the scientific models, run on supercomputers, used to create virtually all weather forecasts,” UCLA climate scientist Dr. Daniel Swain said in a post on social media.
“This is horrible news for numerical weather prediction in this country. The data that comes from these key parts of our weather enterprise saves lives,” wrote meteorologist Jim Cantore.
“Friends, if this happens, our ability to forecast the weather is LITERALLY in jeopardy. Not an exaggeration,” said 4029 News meteorologist Darby Bybee.
“Who needs high quality weather forecasts? The Trump regime apparently thinks they are dispensable. Maybe the word ‘climate’ in NOAA’s Center for Weather and Climate Prediction is the problem?“ asked Dr. Stefan Rahmstorf, a professor of physics of the oceans and head of earth system analysis at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Several people pointed out that the timing of such a move would be ironic, considering the fire and tornadoes expected across the country this week.
“Just came here to make sure the that irony of severe weather occurring in OK the night it’s being reported that Trump’s DOGE is canceling the lease for the NOAA center in Norman, after laying off weather experts at NWS, isn’t lost on anyone,” wrote Oklahoma Rep. Forrest Bennet.
With just a few months before hurricane season, KPRC 2 meteorologist Justin Stapleton said that the reported lease cancellations are “not a smart decision.”
While some have wondered if the private sector could replicate some of the work done by NOAA, the scale of its operation is hard to match.
“These are big expenditures that I think would be very, very difficult to duplicate in the private sector,” James Franklin, the former head of the Hurricane Forest Unit in Miami, previously told NPR. “And if the private sector were doing that, are we going to see the data for free?”
“If it’s a weather forecast, an app, TV weather graphic, Doppler radar stream, or weather model map, the raw data is coming from NOAA,” said meteorologist Paul Douglas.
At the end of last week, more than 1,000 NOAA employees of various skill levels were fired across multiple fields, leading to widespread outrage and weekend protests. Those impacted by the firings — as well as politicians — said they would hurt the American public.
Fired workers have said that their jobs were focused on specific systems that obtained critical data. Without experts with their skillsets, the agency could be stretched too thin.
“When you don’t have people and bodies to verify how accurate the model depictions are, you’re not going to be successful,” Evan Belkin, who was hired at the National Weather Service in 2023, told NBC News. The University of Albany doctoral student was part of a program that allows people still finishing degrees to work at the agency. “Without people and bodies, this flood inundation mapping project is going to go down the s—-er.”
“When there’s any large displacement in the Earth’s crust or water, we get notified and have to determine if there’s an earthquake large enough to create a tsunami or if a tsunami has been generated by other means,” Kayla Besong, a physical scientist at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, explained. “I’ve been developing these skills for over 10 years. I’m an excellent programmer. Their systems are very niche, and they require people who know how to program.”
Previously, the Trump administration has reversed course on its decisions, and the National Science Foundation is reinstating dozens of employees terminated last month.
“We’ll see how bad this upcoming severe weather season is and the hurricane season. And, like, yeah we’ll see if they have to call back and rehire some forecasters,” Tom DiLiberto, a climate scientist who worked at NOAA since 2010, told The Independent last week.
“The government is here to help people. It’s not here to make things worse. But, what they’re trying to do is make things worse, across the board,” he said.
